Men Are Treating 2016 As A ‘Normal’ Election; Women Aren’t

We could be looking at the largest gender gap in a presidential election since at least 1952: Men are favoring the Republican nominee, Donald Trump, in typical numbers, but a historically overwhelming share of women say they will vote for the Democrat, Hillary Clinton.

As my colleague Nate Silver has pointed out, women are winning this election for Clinton. Between the historic nature of Clinton’s candidacy, Trump’s record of misogynistic comments and now the Trump tape and allegations of sexual assault against Trump, American men and women are incredibly split on the 2016 election. But that split isn’t symmetrical. In an average of the most recent live-interview polls from each pollster to test the race in October, Clinton holds a 20-percentage-point advantage among women, and Trump is winning more narrowly among men.

A gender gap is quite normal. Exit polls, for instance, show that Democrats won the national House vote among women in 2014, despite Republicans notching a landslide victory overall. And there has been a consistent gap in recent presidential elections, beginning with the 1980 race. But even so, Democrats didn’t carry women in such overwhelming numbers. Here’s the Democratic candidate’s average margin of victory in each presidential election from the American National Election Studies, Gallup and exit poll data 1 for both men and women since 1952:

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Keywords in this article

Keyword Sentiment Site Avg. Compared
men + 0.44 -0.16
0.60
Clinton + 0.36 -0.18
0.54
strong Democratic vote + 0.26 0.26
0.00
colleague Nate Silver + 0.24 0.04
0.20
Trump + 0.21 -0.07
0.28
women + 0.15 -0.22
0.37
largest gender gap + 0.00 -0.04
0.04
percentage points + 0.00 -0.19
0.19
presidential election + 0.00 -0.14
0.14
National Election Studies + 0.00 -0.05
0.05
national House vote + 0.00 0.00
0.00
historically overwhelming share + 0.00 0.00
0.00
recent live-interview polls + 0.00 0.00
0.00
Donald Trump + 0.00 -0.14
0.14
consistent gap + 0.00 0.00
0.00
recent presidential elections + 0.00 -0.04
0.04
largest gap + 0.00 0.00
0.00
exit poll data + 0.00 0.00
0.00
FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast + 0.00 -0.06
0.06
smaller gender gap -0.24 -0.36
0.12
26-percentage-point gender gap -0.26 -0.26
0.00
Democrat George McGovern -0.28 -0.17
-0.11
Republican Richard Nixon -0.28 -0.17
-0.11
gender gap -0.29 -0.34
0.05
average gender gap -0.29 -0.29
0.00
current live-interview polls -0.31 -0.31
0.00
large gender gap -0.32 -0.32
0.00
Clinton’s candidacy -0.34 -0.14
-0.20
live-interview polls -0.35 -0.26
-0.09
Trump tape -0.63 -0.25
-0.38

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